SciELO - Scientific Electronic Library Online

 
vol.83 número5Brotes por norovirus en residencias y centros sanitarios de Cataluña índice de autoresíndice de materiabúsqueda de artículos
Home Pagelista alfabética de revistas  

Servicios Personalizados

Articulo

Indicadores

Links relacionados

  • En proceso de indezaciónCitado por Google
  • No hay articulos similaresSimilares en SciELO
  • En proceso de indezaciónSimilares en Google

Compartir


Revista Española de Salud Pública

versión impresa ISSN 1135-5727

Resumen

MUNOZ, M. Pilar; ORCAU, Angels  y  CAYLA, Joan. Tuberculosis in Barcelona: A predictive model based on temporal series. Rev. Esp. Salud Publica [online]. 2009, vol.83, n.5, pp.751-757. ISSN 1135-5727.

Tuberculosis (TB) continues to cause millions of new cases and deaths worldwide every year. The World Health Organization (WHO) has recently estimated that in 2007 9,273,000 cases (incidence 139/100,000 inhabitants) and 1,772,000 deaths were attributed to TB and, in the previous year, the absolute figure was slightly lower (9,240,000 cases) and the incidence somewhat higher (140/100,000), making it difficult to determine whether there was a reduction or not. The objective of this study was to apply fovecasting models to TB, differentiating between indigenous and immigrant subjects, in a city in which the annual number of cases has been recorded since 1987. Adjusted segmented regression (piecewise regression) was applied to the series of new cases in the indigenous and immigrant populations of Barcelona. The evolution of TB differed radically; whereas in the indigenous population there was a downward trend, coinciding with the reduction in new of cases of AIDS, in immigrants there was an upward trend. The estimated number of new cases in 2009 was 168 (95% CI 109 - 227) in indigenous subjects and 227 (95% CI, 180 - 275) in immigrants.

Palabras clave : Tuberculosis incidence; forecast; piecewise regression.

        · resumen en Español     · texto en Español     · Español ( pdf )

 

Creative Commons License Todo el contenido de esta revista, excepto dónde está identificado, está bajo una Licencia Creative Commons