Abstract

RIERA, M et al. Predictive value of the EuroSCORE model in cardiac surgery in our site. Med. Intensiva [online]. 2007, vol.31, n.5, pp.231-236. ISSN 0210-5691.

Objective. The use of risk prediction models in cardiac surgery makes it possible to compare and evaluate health care quality between different institutions in countries. This study aimed to assess the performance of the European System for Cardiac Operative Risk Evaluation (EuroSCORE) model in estimating the risk of mortality of cardiac surgery patients of our hospital. Patients and methods. The additive and logistic EuroSCORE models were applied to all patients who underwent cardiac surgery with extracorporeal circulation from the time the cardiac surgery unit was opened in our center in November 2002 until February 2006. All data were obtained prospectively when the patients were admitted to the Intensive Care Unit. Mortality observed was compared with that estimated in the following subgroups: global cardiac surgery, isolated coronary surgery, isolated valvular surgery, combined valvular and coronary surgery and thoracic aorta surgery. Model discrimination was tested by determining the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Results. We studied 1,053 patients who had several differences with the EuroScore model population. Overall observed mortality was 2.2% (95% CI 1.2 - 3.1). The EuroSCORE models overestimated mortality (additive predicted 5%, logistic predicted 4.6%). Mortality of coronary bypass graft surgery was 1.2% and both EuroSCORE models overestimated it. Discriminative power of both models was good with an Area under ROC curve for both models of 0.78 and 0.79. Conclusions. The use of both EuroSCORE models overestimated overall observed mortality and that of the different surgical subgroups of cardiac surgery performed in our institution.

Keywords : cardiac surgery; mortality; risk prediction models; EuroSCORE.