Abstract

PUIGVERT VILALTA, Margarita; MARTI LLUCH, Ruth; PONJOAN THANS, Anna  and  RAMOS BLANES, Rafel. Prediction of dependency in the elderly attended in primary health care. Index Enferm [online]. 2016, vol.25, n.3, pp.146-150. ISSN 1699-5988.

Objective: To identify the elderly population attended in primary health care with more risk of becoming dependent for activities of daily living. Methods: A longitudinal study, based on data recorded in the medical record of people from 75 years old. We constructed a Cox models to determine the risk of becoming dependent on the follow up. The discrimination capacity of the model was estimated with the concordance index. Results: The model showed as predictors of dependency: the mental impairment, according to the Pfeiffer test, severe (HR: 3,02; 95% CI 2,03-4,49) or moderate (HR: 1,35; 95% CI 1,08 to 1,68), homecare situation (HR: 1,82; 95% CI 1,44 to 2,31) and to have recorded history of falls (HR: 1,51; 95% CI 1,20 to 1,90). The C index of the derivation model was 0,72 (95% CI 0,68 to 0,76). Conclusions: The model accurately predicts patients most likely to be dependent.

Keywords : Health of the Elderly; Risk Assessment; Activities of Daily Living; Falls; Cognitive Impairment.