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Revista Española de Sanidad Penitenciaria
On-line version ISSN 2013-6463Print version ISSN 1575-0620
Abstract
MARCO, A and GRUMIP* (GRUMIP OR GRUP DE CONTROL DE MALALTIES INFECCIOSES EN EL AMBIT PENITENCIARI) et al. Is it possible to eliminate hepatitis C from the prisons of Catalonia, Spain, in 2021?. Rev. esp. sanid. penit. [online]. 2019, vol.21, n.1, pp.38-41. Epub Oct 21, 2019. ISSN 2013-6463. https://dx.doi.org/10.4321/s1575-06202019000100006.
Aim:
Predict the elimination of chronic hepatitis C in Catalan prisons.
Material and method:
We analyzed the trend of the prevalence of HCV-RNA and anti-hepatitis C treatments prescribed in Catalonia in the period 2002-2016. Using linear exponential smoothing from the historical values in the time series, we estimate the time required to eliminate hepatitis C as a public health problem in prisons (prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA<1%).
Results:
A total of 1264 treatments were administered by 12/31/2016. The prevalence of hepatitis C virus RNA was 31.2% in 2002, decreasing to 8.81% in 2016. We estimate that prevalence will reach 0-0.5% in 5 years (second half 2021; 95% CI: 2019-2025).
Discussion:
Appropriate actions can eliminate hepatitis C infection in prisoners. We estimate that by 2021 hepatitis C infection will no longer be a public health problem in Catalonia prisons.
Keywords : hepatitis C; disease eradication; prisons; time series studies; epidemiology.
