Introduction:

contract records of gases and similar elements used by the Air Force are being signed from 1997. The management of this activity was appointed, from the very beginning, to the Air Force Pharmacy of Madrid (CEFARMA). However, the last divergences between the asigned economic licenses and the actual execution have been noticeable. The lack of mathematical predictive models may account for the disadjustment between the budgeted and the executed. The elaboration of statistic and economeric estimates is retained as the main basis to efficiently forward-looking through contract records of gases properly done, that is, not based on the inertial increment of historical budgets.

Aims:

mathematical estimates of budgetary prediction in budget allocations of contract records of gases used by the Air Force.

Materials and method:

gathering of the economic data from invoicing and payments. Billing figures have been deflated taking 2016 as the basis. For the mathematical, graphic and statistical treatment of the data the following computing apps have been used: Microsoft® Excel (2016), Eviews®10, Gretl (2017c) and Statistica v12 (StatSoft inc.).

Results:

different ARIMA models have been obtained, being ARIMA (3,1,0) the best in annual and quarterly result validation.

Conclusions:

ARIMA models allow to predict the economic allocations in the contract records of fases in the Air Force.