Resumo

GUTIERREZ MOYA, Ester; GONZALEZ CAMACHO, M. Carmen  e  SALMERON SILVERA, Jose Luis. Analyzing the Impact of Decisions in the Scope of Long Term care by Fuzzy Cognitive Maps, Spain. Rev. Esp. Salud Publica [online]. 2012, vol.86, n.6, pp.565-574. ISSN 2173-9110.

System for Autonomy and Care for Dependency (Spanish acronym SAAD) was created to provide a framework for the protection of dependent people. The priority established by law on benefits in kind over cash benefits, together with the efficient management of public resources provided economic returns for the SAAD, such as employment generation. The variables that influence the implementation of the SAAD are extremely complex and dynamic, and there are multiple relationships between them. The aim of this paper is to analyze the problem of satisfying a growing demand for protection, at minimum cost, and reaps the economic returns using fuzzy logic (fuzzy cognitive map). This technique is designed as a tool for decision-making in this area, to analyze the evolution of causal variables to a state of equilibrium. To do this, we have developed 4 scenarios (E1: Ageing, E2: Ageing and benefits in kind, E3: Ageing and cash benefits, E4: Ageing and cash benefit for care in the family), to analyze the evolution of variables, especially public expenditure and employment. Among the main results are: ageing is critical for the increased spending in all scenarios, but only in E1 and E2 is generated employment, residential care is not altered, even in E2; Telecare increases in all scenarios, and the cash benefit for personal attendant increases in E1 and E2.

Palavras-chave : Aging; Long term care; Social protection; Public expenditure; Employment; Fuzzy cognitive maps.

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