Objectives:

To examine the predictive validity of the HCR-20 (The Historical Clinical Risk Management-20) to predict future violent incidents in a representative sample of patients with severe mental disorders and with a history of previous admission to prison, who after release are in a situation of extreme social exclusion.

Material and method:

The study sample was selected from the 235 patients treated by the Mental Health Street Team of Madrid (ECASAM) from June 2014 to June 2017, including those with a previous history of a previous internment in a penitentiary (about which, the HCR-20 was completed).

Results:

Of the 44 patients included, 29.6% (n=13) ended up participating in a violent incident after the release. The ROC curves (Receiver Operating Characteristic) analysis indicated that the total score of HCR-20 (AUC 0.98, p=0.01) has a high predictive validity.

Conclusions:

The social and medical changes that take place after the release of patients with severe mental illness justify the need to reassess the risk of violence. In this evaluation, the HCR-20 guide is a useful tool for predicting the risk of involvement in future violent incidents, and the inclusion of factors such as social exclusion and its consequences, as well as problems with substance use is especially important.

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