Introduction:

The SIR epidemic model is useful for measuring the rate of spread of COVID-19 strains (B.1.617.2/P.1/C.37/B.1.621), in terms of epidemiological threshold R0 over time.

Objective:

To evaluate a mathematical model of differential type, typical of the behavior of COVID-19 for the Peruvian collective.

Methods:

A differential mathematical model of the behavior of the pandemic was developed for the Peruvian collective, based on the experience in the control of Kermack-McKendrick infections. The number of susceptible S, infected and spreading infection I and recovered R was estimated, using official datasets from the World Health Organization, based on the history between March 7 and September 12, 2020 and; projected for 52 weeks until September 11, 2021.

Results:

The lowest rate of infections will occur from April 3, 2021. Evidencing a prognosis of lower transmissibility for May 29, 2021 with an infected rate (β=0.08) and threshold (R0=0.000), the accuracy of the model was also quantified at 97.795%, with 2.205% of average percentage error, with the temporary average value being R0 <1, so each person who contracts the disease will infect less than one person before dying or recovering, so the outbreak will disappear.

Conclusion:

The curve of infections in Peru will depend directly on mitigation measures to curb the spread of infection and predict sustained transmission through vaccination against covid-19 type strains; with the observance of people of preventive measures.

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