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Revista de Osteoporosis y Metabolismo Mineral

On-line version ISSN 2173-2345Print version ISSN 1889-836X


REYES DOMINGUEZ, AI et al. Assessment of the predictive capacity of the Garvan calculator of 10 year risk of fracture in a Spanish population. Rev Osteoporos Metab Miner [online]. 2017, vol.9, n.2, pp.55-61. ISSN 2173-2345.


Several calculation tools or scales have been developed in recent years to assess the risk of fracture due to long-term fragility. The Garvan calculator has not been validated in the Spanish population. This study aims to observe their predictive capacity in a population sample of the Canary Islands and, therefore, of the Spanish population

Material and methods:

We included 121 patients who were followed up for 10 years in our consultations. All were assessed the risk of fracture using the Garvan calculator and based on the data obtained in the first visit.


Of the 121 patients, 30 suffered at least one osteoporotic fracture over the 10-year follow-up period. The group of patients with fractures had on the Garvan scale an average risk value to suffer any fracturing fracture of 27%, compared to 13% of those who did not suffer fracture (p<0.001). The area under the corresponding ROC curve was 0.718 (CI-95% = 0.613 ; 0.824). Based on this, the estimated optimal cut-off point to consider a high risk fracture was 18.5%. This value corresponded to a sensitivity of 0.67 (CI-95% = 0.47 ; 0.83) and a specificity of 0.67 (CI-95% = 0.56 ; 0.77).


Our results show that the Garvan scale adequately predicts the risk of 10-year osteoporotic fracture in our population. A value lower than 18.5% would allow us to establish a low fracture risk and could be used as a screening tool.

Keywords : osteoporosis; risk; fracture; scale; Garvan calculator; Spanish population.

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