<?xml version="1.0" encoding="ISO-8859-1"?><article xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink" xmlns:xsi="http://www.w3.org/2001/XMLSchema-instance">
<front>
<journal-meta>
<journal-id>0213-9111</journal-id>
<journal-title><![CDATA[Gaceta Sanitaria]]></journal-title>
<abbrev-journal-title><![CDATA[Gac Sanit]]></abbrev-journal-title>
<issn>0213-9111</issn>
<publisher>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Sociedad Española de Salud Pública y Administración Sanitaria (SESPAS)]]></publisher-name>
</publisher>
</journal-meta>
<article-meta>
<article-id>S0213-91112021000600585</article-id>
<article-id pub-id-type="doi">10.1016/j.gaceta.2020.05.005</article-id>
<title-group>
<article-title xml:lang="es"><![CDATA[Modelos predictivos de la epidemia de COVID-19 en España con curvas de Gompertz]]></article-title>
<article-title xml:lang="en"><![CDATA[Predictive models of the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain with Gompertz curves]]></article-title>
</title-group>
<contrib-group>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sánchez-Villegas]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Pablo]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3"/>
</contrib>
<contrib contrib-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Daponte Codina]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Antonio]]></given-names>
</name>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aff"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="Aaf"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A a"/>
<xref ref-type="aff" rid="A3"/>
</contrib>
</contrib-group>
<aff id="Af1">
<institution><![CDATA[,Escuela Andaluza de Salud Pública  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Granada ]]></addr-line>
<country>España</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af2">
<institution><![CDATA[,Observatorio de Salud y Medio Ambiente de Andalucía (OSMAN)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[Granada ]]></addr-line>
<country>España</country>
</aff>
<aff id="Af3">
<institution><![CDATA[,CIBER de Epidemiología y Salud Pública (CIBERESP)  ]]></institution>
<addr-line><![CDATA[ ]]></addr-line>
<country>España</country>
</aff>
<pub-date pub-type="pub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<pub-date pub-type="epub">
<day>00</day>
<month>12</month>
<year>2021</year>
</pub-date>
<volume>35</volume>
<numero>6</numero>
<fpage>585</fpage>
<lpage>589</lpage>
<copyright-statement/>
<copyright-year/>
<self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.isciii.es/scielo.php?script=sci_arttext&amp;pid=S0213-91112021000600585&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.isciii.es/scielo.php?script=sci_abstract&amp;pid=S0213-91112021000600585&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><self-uri xlink:href="http://scielo.isciii.es/scielo.php?script=sci_pdf&amp;pid=S0213-91112021000600585&amp;lng=en&amp;nrm=iso"></self-uri><abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="es"><p><![CDATA[Resumen Durante la crisis de salud internacional provocada por la pandemia de COVID-19, además de conocer los datos sobre contagios, muertes y ocupación de camas hospitalarias también es necesario hacer predicciones que ayuden a la gestión de la crisis por parte de las autoridades sanitarias. El presente trabajo tiene como objetivo describir la metodología utilizada para la elaboración de modelos predictivos de contagios y defunciones para la epidemia de COVID-19 en España basados en curvas de Gompertz. La metodología se aplica al total del país y a cada una de sus comunidades autónomas. De acuerdo con los datos oficiales publicados a la fecha de realización de este trabajo, y a través de los modelos descritos, estimamos un total de alrededor de 240.000 contagiados y 25.000 fallecidos al final de la epidemia. Pronosticamos el final de la epidemia entre los meses de junio y julio de 2020.]]></p></abstract>
<abstract abstract-type="short" xml:lang="en"><p><![CDATA[Abstract During the international health crisis caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, it is necessary not only to know the data on infections, deaths and the occupation of hospital beds, but also to make predictions that help health authorities in the management of the crisis. The present work aims to describe the methodology used to develop predictive models of infections and deaths for the COVID-19 epidemic in Spain, based on Gompertz curves. The methodology is applied to the country as a whole and to each of its Autonomous Communities. Based on the official data available on the date of this work, and through the models described, we estimate a total of around 240.000 infected and 25.000 deaths at the end of the epidemic. At a national level, we forecast the end of the epidemic between June and July 2020.]]></p></abstract>
<kwd-group>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Predicción]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="es"><![CDATA[Mortalidad]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[COVID-19]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Forecasting]]></kwd>
<kwd lng="en"><![CDATA[Mortality]]></kwd>
</kwd-group>
</article-meta>
</front><back>
<ref-list>
<ref id="B1">
<label>1</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<collab>Ministerio de Sanidad Profesionales</collab>
<source><![CDATA[Documentos técnicos para profesionales Coronavirus]]></source>
<year></year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B2">
<label>2</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Lega]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[J]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Brown]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[HE]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Data-driven outbreak forecasting with a simple nonlinear growth model]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Epidemics]]></source>
<year>2016</year>
<volume>17</volume>
<page-range>19-26</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B3">
<label>3</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Zwietering]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[MH]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jongenburger]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[I]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Rombouts]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[FM]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Modeling of the bacterial growth curve]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Appl Environ Microbiol]]></source>
<year>1990</year>
<volume>56</volume>
<page-range>1875-81</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B4">
<label>4</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jia]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[L]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Li]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[K]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Jiang]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[Y]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Prediction and analysis of coronavirus disease 2019]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Cornell University]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B5">
<label>5</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nelder]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JA]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Mead]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[R]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[A simple method for function minimization]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Comput J]]></source>
<year>1965</year>
<volume>7</volume>
<page-range>308-13</page-range></nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B6">
<label>6</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Nash]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JC]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[Compact numerical methods for computers: linear algebra and function minimisation]]></source>
<year>1990</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Bristol and New York ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Hilger]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B7">
<label>7</label><nlm-citation citation-type="book">
<collab>R Core Team</collab>
<source><![CDATA[R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
<publisher-loc><![CDATA[Vienna ]]></publisher-loc>
<publisher-name><![CDATA[Austria]]></publisher-name>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B8">
<label>8</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Ritz]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[C]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Baty]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[F]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Streibig]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[JC]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Dose-response analysis using R]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[PLoS One]]></source>
<year>2015</year>
<volume>10</volume>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B9">
<label>9</label><nlm-citation citation-type="">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Clausen]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Sokol]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[S]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<source><![CDATA[{Deriv}: R-based symbolic differentiation]]></source>
<year>2019</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
<ref id="B10">
<label>10</label><nlm-citation citation-type="journal">
<person-group person-group-type="author">
<name>
<surname><![CDATA[Figueiredo]]></surname>
<given-names><![CDATA[A]]></given-names>
</name>
</person-group>
<article-title xml:lang=""><![CDATA[Impact of lockdown on COVID-19 incidence and mortality in China: an interrupted time series study]]></article-title>
<source><![CDATA[Bull World Heal Organ]]></source>
<year>2020</year>
</nlm-citation>
</ref>
</ref-list>
</back>
</article>
